2024 Economic and Investment Outlook
A Long and Winding Road
Looking ahead to 2024, recession risks remain significant due to tighter monetary policy effects, consumer and business pressures, and geopolitical tensions. The Fed has shifted to a more dovish stance, signaling an end to its aggressive inflation battle.
Market Commentary
Monthly Market Commentaries identify recent drivers in the capital markets. Each commentary is authored by a member of Abacanto Holding Research Team.
May 2024
Domestic equity markets remained strong in May, with the S&P 500 posting new record highs. Growth stocks continue to outperform value stocks and large cap stocks continue to outperform small cap stocks. Trading volumes in GameStop (NYSE: GME) have surged again.
Apr 2024
U.S. hiring slowed in April, with employers adding 175,000 jobs compared to the projected 240,000 jobs forecasted by economists. Unemployment ticked up to 3.9% from 3.8% in February. The less-than-expected jobs growth invites speculation as to whether the labor market is cooling under the strains of higher interest rates.
Mar 2024
Domestic equity markets continue to rally, with the S&P 500 returning 3.22% in March. The U.S. economy remains resilient and has led to positive performance in nearly every S&P 500 sector. Mega-cap tech companies, however, still lead the broader market.
Feb 2024
Domestic equity markets had a strong month, with the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting new all-time highs. Large cap technology companies, notably AI-adjacent companies, continue to drive the performance of the indices, with NVIDIA reporting stronger than expected earnings and continuing its rally.
Jan 2024
The S&P 500 Index started 2024 up 1.68%, posting new all-time highs on six different occasions throughout the month. The continued rally was driven primarily by strong earnings from mega cap technology companies, with Meta tripling its profits from January of last year, resulting in a 20% surge and an additional $200 billion in market cap.
Dec 2023
The S&P 500 Index finished 2023 up 26.29% on the year, and up 4.54% in December alone. Domestic equity markets rallied into the end of the year, fueled by optimism about the shifting sentiment of the Fed, cooling inflation, a resilient labor market, and robust consumer spending.
Nov 2023
Inflation cooled in October, rising 3.2% on a year-over-year basis, compared with 3.7% in September. This is largely due to a sharp decline in the price of gasoline, and energy as a whole.
Oct 2023
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that, although the US labor market has been slowing, 150,000 jobs were added last month. This figure fell short of initial market expectations but completed a strong month of employment growth. The unemployment rate increased to 3.9% in October.
Sep 2023
The S&P 500 Index declined -4.77% in September, bringing its total year-to-date (YTD) return to 13.07%. The S&P 500 remains very concentrated, with the top 10 stocks representing over 30% of the market capitalization of the index. These top 10 stocks, mostly technology companies, have driven nearly 22% of rolling 12 month returns.
Aug 2023
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a growing interest in "nearshoring" (bringing manufacturing closer to the U.S.). Factors such as the conflict in Ukraine, U.S.-China tensions, tariff implementations, etc. have fueled this shift in supply chain dynamics. These transformations are now visible in trade data.
Jul 2023
From June to July, the technology-focused NASDAQ index exhibited a noteworthy return of 9.50%, resulting in a year-to-date increase of 38%. This surge can be attributed to investors' favorable outlook on sustained progress in the realm of artificial intelligence, coupled with a decline in apprehensions surrounding the possibility of a recession in the United States.
Jun 2023
Although economic activity appears to be waning, macroeconomic data remains strong. In May, core retail sales rose 0.4%, surpassing expectations. Additionally, housing activity, including home sales, building permits, and housing starts, experienced a rebound.